Where the subsidy fight stands

This page is reviewed at least monthly until Congress resolves the question. Every dated entry below says exactly what changed. If you only read one page on this site, read this one.

The short version (as of July 5, 2026)

• The ACA's enhanced premium tax credits expired January 1, 2026 after Congress failed to extend them. KFF estimates the average subsidized enrollee's payment rose about 114% — roughly $1,016 more per year — to keep the same plan.
• The 400% FPL "subsidy cliff" is back: earn above four times the federal poverty level and the premium subsidy disappears entirely. This hits early retirees and higher-earning self-employed people hardest.
• The House passed a three-year extension of the enhanced credits on January 8, 2026. It remains stalled in the Senate as of this writing.
• Meanwhile, gross 2026 premiums rose about 26% on average, and early 2027 rate filings point to a second straight year of double-digit increases.
• Open enrollment for 2027 coverage runs November 1 to December 15, 2026 in HealthCare.gov states — a month shorter than consumers are used to.

What each outcome would mean for you

If the extension passes (especially with retroactive language), subsidized premiums would drop back toward 2025 levels and the 400% FPL cliff would disappear again. If you sat out 2026 coverage because of price, watch this page — a mid-year change could reopen your options.

If it stays dead, the math for 2027 is the math you see today: subsidies end at 400% FPL, and managing your MAGI near the cliff (timing capital gains, Roth conversions, retirement contributions) matters more than plan choice for many households. Our early retirement guide walks through the cliff arithmetic.

Either way: never skip comparing. Premiums moved so much that last year's conclusion — even "I can't afford anything" — may simply be wrong this year, in either direction.

Changelog

• July 5, 2026 — Page created. House-passed extension still stalled in the Senate; 2027 NBPP rule (adopted May 20, 2026) facing a June 2026 lawsuit; early 2027 filings show double-digit requested increases. (Each future review adds a dated line here, even when nothing changed — "reviewed, no change" is information too.)